Wild Card NFL Picks - New Orleans Saints (-10.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Saturday, January 08, 2011
by Aengus Moorehead
When & Where:
Saturday, Jan 8th. 4:30 p.m. ET, Qwest Field; Seattle, WA.
Weather:
Mostly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 5-10 M.P.H. Game-time temperature: Near 45.
Analysis:
The Seattle Seahawks (7-9) get to host a home playoff game thanks to the divisional structure of the NFL. The New Orleans Saints (11-5) lost any chance of winning the NFC South when they lost their last game of the regular season to the Buccaneers. The Saints and Seahawks meet to see who advances to the divisional round of the NFL playoffs.
The road back to the Super Bowl starts somewhere the Saints have never won in the postseason: the road. They were the visiting team in Super Bowl XLIV, but that game was played at a neutral site. New Orleans is 0-3 in playoff games played on the opponent's home field.
The Seahawks face a choice at starter. Matt Hasselbeck passed for 366 yards against the Saints on Nov. 21, and he has started four of the franchise's seven playoff victories. Hasselbeck is recovering from a strained muscle in his hip and backside, and though he was ready to play last week, Coach Pete Carroll started backup Charlie Whitehurst. Whitehurst had a lackluster game against a good St. Louis Rams defense, throwing for 192 yards and one touchdown. The Seattle Seahawks will need more than that from their quarterback to have a prayer in this game.
Whitehurst didn't commit a turnover in the victory over the Rams. Hasselbeck struggled with turnovers this season.
When it comes to comparing offenses in this game, there really is no comparison. The Saints offense ranked sixth during the regular season with an average of 373 total yards per game. The focus of the Saints offense is quarterback Drew Brees who threw for 4,620 yards and 33 touchdowns in the regular season. The Saints were desperately trying to get a running game going against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but failed. It will not be a problem in this game, but the Saints will not reach their playoff goal of another Super Bowl without a running game.
The Seattle defense did enough shifting and disguising to confuse rookie quarterback Sam Bradford. However, the Seahawks ranked 27th against the pass in 2010 giving up an average of 250 yards per game in the air. The Seahawks secondary does not have the speed to stay with the Saints receivers and the Seattle pass rush will not be able to get by the Saints offensive line.
The New Orleans Saints were able to put together a game plan two weeks ago that blew by the Falcon’ s offensive line and put pressure on Matt Ryan. But New Orleans seemed to have a problem containing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers running game. If running back Marshawn Lynch and the rest of the Seattle running attack can get moving in this game, it may give Seattle some hope at scoring points.
Even though he was on the sideline and ready to play Sunday, the Seahawks still list quarterback Matt Hasselbeck (hip) as questionable along with wide receiver Brandon Stokley (head). Place kicker Olindo Mare (back) is listed as probable for this game and is expected to play.
The Saints list wide receiver Marques Colston (knee), defensive tackle Tony Hargrove (knee) and tight end Jeremy Shockey (groin) as questionable for this game but all are expected to play.
It is accurate to say Seattle's loss in New Orleans was its closest defeat of the season. It's also misleading, considering the Seahawks were beaten by 15 points. Each team had five scoring drives that game. The difference was New Orleans scored five touchdowns while Seattle had one. Of the four field goals Seattle kicked, two came after drives stalled at the Saints 2.
The difference was defense. That loss in New Orleans was a tipping point for Seattle. The Seahawks never recovered after giving up touchdowns on five consecutive possessions and allowed 34 or more points in four of their six games since playing New Orleans.
The Saints will have even more firepower now considering Reggie Bush, Jeremy Shockey and Pierre Thomas were all out for that first meeting. The Saints' victory in Atlanta two weeks ago showed they're a threat to defend their title. Seattle isn't just a 7-9 team that squeaked into the playoffs -- they are a bad 7-9 team that's allowed 97 more points than it has scored. Take Saints.
Bet on New Orleans (-10.5) at Seattle at Bovada Sportsbook
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Tags
brandon stokley - charlie whitehurst - drew brees - jeremy shockey - marques colston - marshawn lynch - matt hasselbeck - new orleans saints - olindo mare - pete carroll
