New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts -5.5
Sunday, September 19, 2010
by Aengus Moorehead
Last week: New York Giants (-6.5) beats visiting Carolina 31-18. Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) loses to host Houston 34-24.
Last week against the Spread: NY Giants covers; Indianapolis loses outright.
Analysis:
For just the second time, it's Peyton Manning vs. younger brother Eli. The Colts' veteran QB won Round 1, 26-21, in the 2006 season opener in Giants Stadium. Considering the NFL's rotational scheduling system and barring a Super Bowl match-up, Peyton and Eli Manning might face each other only once more in their careers . . . in four years.
The Giants failed to make the playoffs last season, in part because they had difficulty winning away from home, especially down the stretch. They lost four of their last five on the road while finishing 8-8. To return to the postseason, Eli Manning and Co. must operate more effectively in hostile environments.
In the past three regular season games, the Colts run defense has yielded 202 yards, 248 yards and 257 yards. The first two were in the final two games of 2009, when several front-line players saw limited or no action. The 257 that were allowed by the starters last Sunday at Houston raised early-season red flags.
Peyton Manning passed for 433 yards and three TDs at Houston, but took a beating in the process. Osi Umenyiora and the Giants pass rush could treat him similarly if the Colts aren't able to shore up their pass protection. They got to Carolina QB Matt Moore for four sacks. This is a timing offense, and Manning needs time to run it. He has the knack for sliding around in the pocket to avoid the initial pressure, but isn't nearly as effective when he has to move around.
Despite an injury-plagued preseason, WR Pierre Garcon retained his starting spot. But despite a breakout season in 2009, he remains inconsistent. While Garcon provides big plays and frequent highlights in the passing game, he also drops too many passes. That stalls the offense and does nothing to reinforce QB Peyton Manning’s confidence. If an ankle injury keeps Anthony Gonzalez out, the coaching staff will have to stick with Garcon, drops and all.
The Giants aren't shy about going downfield with WR Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks. The duo averaged 20 yards on eight combined receptions against the Panthers. The Colts' secondary was vulnerable to the deep passing game in the preseason and yielded three 20-plus receptions at Houston. Compounding matters was a 53-yard interference penalty on CB Kelvin Hayden, who's been inconsistent.
At 5-9, 198-pound RB Ahmad Bradshaw is a ball of energy, and the type of back that gives the Colts' run defense fits. The unit seldom slowed down Houston's Arian Foster (33 carries for a team-record 231 yards), and could be in similar trouble if it doesn't tackle better and play with better gap control. The defense cannot allow the Giants to establish Bradshaw, work the clock and take the Lucas Oil Stadium crowd out of the game.
Four-time Pro Bowler DE Dwight Freeney is a game-changer, and can help swing momentum toward the home team if he can apply the pressure to Eli Manning. Freeney joked he isn't allowed to touch Peyton Manning during practices, citing an imaginary "5-yard halo." That won't be in place against the Giants. Eli may get flustered if Freeney and pass-rush mate Robert Mathis get after him.
It's way too early for this to be considered a "must-win" game for the Colts. Maybe "better win" is more like it. After losing the opener at Houston and dealing with the hype surrounding Manning Bowl II, they travel to Denver and Jacksonville. The Colts seldom suffer back-to-back clunkers, and it would be a shock to see them do that on national TV. Look for Peyton to get the better of younger brother Eli, and the Colts to bounce back. Take points and Giants.
Be a player and bet on New York at Indianapolis (-5.5) at Bodog Sportsbook
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ahmad bradshaw - anthony gonzalez - dwight freeney - eli manning - giants stadium - hakeem nicks - indianapolis colts - lucas oil stadium - mario manningham - matt moore
