Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, October 24, 2010
by Aengus Moorehead
Last week’s result:
Minnesota (-1.5) beats visiting Dallas 24-21. Green Bay (-2.5) loses to visiting Miami 23-20.
Last week against the Spread:
Minnesota covers; Green Bay loses outright.
Analysis:
The Minnesota Vikings managed to edge the Cowboy 24-21 at home last week, while the Packers have now lost two in a row after falling 23-20 at home to the Dolphins, their second straight week with an overtime loss. Records are thrown out the window in this NFC North showdown: it’s a division rivalry, and you may have heard somewhere that Minnesota quarterback Brett Favre used to play in Green Bay. Randy Moss also makes his return to Lambeau Field in a Minnesota uniform, making this the must-see game of the week.
We all know the Minnesota Vikings offense isn’t what it was last year, and Favre has been nothing short of awful this year. He was 14-of-19 for 118 yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys, but he’s had a lot on his mind, with off-field troubles piling up, and tendinitis in his elbow. All of this is hurting the productivity of RB Adrian Peterson as teams are stacking the box against him. The pieces are there, but Favre simply has to play better to improve this 24th-ranked offense.
The Green Bay Packers are 13th in the league offensively, but they struggled to move the chains against the Dolphins, failing to get a first down on 10 of 13 third-down opportunities. Aaron Rodgers was 18-of-33 for 188 yards, a touchdown and a pick, and he’s also without tight end Jermichael Finley, who was lost for the season with a knee injury. With Ryan Grant gone, no one is afraid of the Green Bay running game, which means Rodgers has a tough task ahead of him.
The Vikings’ defense is the only reason they still have a shot at rising up the NFL betting ladder, as they rank fifth in the league. They forced a pair of critical turnovers against the Cowboys, and they completely shut down the Dallas ground game. One alarming thing is the lack of a pass rush: the Vikings have just six sacks this season, and DE Jared Allen has just one (he had 7.5 sacks in two games against the Packers last year). That has to change if the Vikings are going to beat the Packers on Sunday night.
Green Bay’s defense is ranked 15th in the NFL, but you could see they missed linebacker Clay Matthews against the Dolphins. Matthews leads the league with 8.5 sacks, but he was out last week with a strained hamstring, and the Packers didn’t register a single sack. The pass rush is the reason that the Packers can afford to go man-to-man in the secondary, because the opposing quarterback usually doesn’t have that much time to sit in the pocket when Matthews in the lineup.
This game is a toss-up. Both teams are not playing great football, but one of them is going to come out of this game feeling a lot better about itself. Take Vikings.
Be a player and bet on Minnesota (+2.5) at Green Bay at Bodog Sportsbook
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aaron rodgers - adrian peterson - brett favre - clay matthews - green bay packers - jared allen - jermichael finley - lambeau field - minnesota vikings - nfl betting
